Week 13

Heartbreak.

Lots and lots of heartbreak

and tears.

That's what Week 13 is made of,

In no week do the "shoulda, woulda, coulda's" resonate so loudly as the final week.  The grandest of plans, the surest of picks, and the safest of unit allocations have a way of blowing up in your face.  For some, it was a matter of just missing a field goal or placing 4 units where they should have placed two.  For others, it was the culmination of a three week long free fall.  Regardless, the pain is real and the suffering is great for one knows that it will be 39 more weeks until there is a chance for atonement.

And a title.

Within the next 28 hours, we will crown our first champion.  Forever, his name will be associated with greatness.  While other champions will come and go and some may win with more units, there will never be another "First/"  For those about to rock, we salute you.

We have three people that are guaranteed money and four more that are battling for the Closest to Zero prize.  Here are the scenarios for Closest to Zero:

If KC and NY cover, Gator wins the money with 1 unit after the record tie-breaker with Dirty D.
If KC and Miami cover. Dirty D wins the money with 1 unit.
If Denver and Miami cover, Uncle PJ and Monty split the money with 3 units and identical records.
If Denver and NY cover, Gator wins the money with 1 unit.

Championship Money:

Captain will finish in 3rd and win $75.

If Denver and Miami cover,  Meehoe wins with the league, T-$ comes in second.
If Denver and New York cover, T-$ wins the league, Meehoe comes in second.
If Kansas City covers, T-$ wins the league, Meehoe comes in second.

Winners of the largest spread are:

College - CDes/Bink
College Vapor - Gladiator
Pro - Gladiator
Pro Vapor - Packy

Sometime in the next week I will try to put together your "baseball card" of information for this season in an excel document.  These will be used to keep track of all personal and league records from year to year.  Initially, it wont be much to look at, but it may turn into something cool.  Once that is done, I will update the league records and post the official rules for next year.  Just a reminder, the league dues will be $100 next season and must be collected in full before the season starts.  I will be offering a payment plan if necessary.

3 the Hard Way

The struggles among the top three continued on Saturday with each of Meehoe, Gladiator, and the Captain missing his pick.  This has left the door open for T-$, CDes/Bink, and Packy to finish first, second, and third respectively.  It would take a minor miracle, but it could happen.

Battle for closest to zero is hot and heavy.  Currently,it is possible for Hitman to get to 4, Yahoo to 3, Uncle PJ to -1, Dirty D and Gator to 1, and Spencer to 0.  There are a ton of possible scenarios so I will wait until tomorrow night to break them down.

Congratulations to CDes/Bink and Gladiator for winning the largest college covers.  $25 dollars are heading to each of them.

Here is a breakdown of the championship picture.  Meehoe needs Pittsburgh, New England, Arizona, and Kansas City to fail to cover.  Gladiator needs to hit both of his games and for either Arizona or Kansas City to fail to cover.  Captain needs the same.  If both Captain and Gladiator hit their picks and either Arizona or Kansas City fails to cover, they will tie for the championship and split the aggregate of first and second place money.  There are a handful of scenarios where T-$ can win.

Let's just say that it's going to be an interesting day at 1903 W. 10th Street.

It's the Final Countdown!

We may not be heading to Venus, but we are rapidly approaching the end of the inaugural Major League Lock Club season.  I hope it has been as interesting and fun-filled for you as it has been for me.  One thing is for sure, nothing is ever guaranteed.  In the middle of Week 7, Gladiator sat at 50 units with his closest competition sitting at 27.  It appeared that not only would he easily win the league, he would set a mark that would never be matched.  Then the drought hit.  Going 6-10 dropped him all of the way back down to 28 points.  Then it looked like Captain was going to grab the baton and run away.  He peaked at 47 units heading into Week 11.  An 0-6 run meant he fell all of the way back to 3rd.  Meehoe made a major move over Weeks 9 and 10 hitting 3 consecutive Vapors.  He reached 41 units before treading enough water to settle at 31, atop the leader board.  The bad news for Meehoe is that Gladiator still has one Vapor in play.  If Gladiator goes 3-0, he will be our champion.  If he fails, there are any number of ways that this thing could shake out.

Obviously, Meehoe, Gladiator, and Captain are the favorites to take home the title and finish in the money.  However, their collective 3-15 performance over the past two weeks has opened the door for T-$ and CDes/Bink.  These two have combined to go 21-7 over the past 14 games and are tied for the best overall record in the league.  T-$ currently sits four units outside of the money, while CDes/Bink (11) could still win the league if the epic collapse continues.  CDes/Bink have a difficult decision to make.  A perfect week could result in a money finish, if not a championship.  A perfectly terrible week would put them at 1 and tough to beat for the Closest to Zero money.  Either way, they have $25 coming back to them via the largest College Cover award.

While it will take a minimum of 21 points to win the title, 13 is the magic number to have a chance to finish in the money.  Aside from the five aforementioned members, six more still have a chance to get in the shade of the money tree.  Packy (9), Dirty D (7), Hitman (5), Uncle PJ (5), Spencer (3), and Well Tea (-10) can all get it done if things break right.  Vapors will be in play from Hitman, Spencer, and Well Tea.  In fact, Well Tea will have ALL THREE Vapors going.

Realistically, most of you will be playing for Closest to Zero.  The others rounding out this list are Monty Yahoo, Gator, and Cento.  Remember, the first tie breaker for CTZ is having a positive score.  The second tie breaker is overall record.  Overall record is the only tie breaker for the top prize money.  To be clear, ties count as a half of a win and a half of a loss.

So here we go.  It's nut cutting time.  Time to figure out not only what you are going to do, but what your competition is going to do.  Scourer the lines.  Crunch the numbers.  Pray those novenas.  Most importantly get your f-ing picks in on time,

Time to Make Your Move

Coming into Week 12, Captain was in charge, holding a 37-32 lead over Gladiator.  However, when Marshall failed to cover and Wake Forest and Minnesota did, the result was a three way tie atop the leaderboard between Captain, Gladiator, and Meehan.  A six unit loss for T-$ seemed to end his chances of winning the title, if not finishing in the money.  The rest of the pack seemed to be gravitating ever closer to 0.

Then on Sunday, no one could land that knockout blow to take command.  All three of the leaders whiffed leaving Meehoe in the lead by default.  Captain fell all of the way down to third.  T-$ managed to hold on to the slightest glimmer of hope by cashing in on a 2 unit win himself.  As it stands right now, the top four scores are 33, 31, 30, and 21.  None has more than 3 units on the NFL Night game.  One thing is for sure:  unless the Giants and Saints cover, Meehoe will be the leader heading into Week 13.  If that happens, it will be Gladiator.

We have two Vapor locks in play headed into the Night Games.  Both CDes/Bink and Gator are taking the Ravens, but neither went all in on their prediction.  Again, next week will be crazy with 8 Vapors in play.  It's time to work out your strategy, think about who your opponents will pick, and get your unit allocation right.

Polar Vortex

Not only is it lonely at the top, it's pretty damn cold up there as well.  Between the college and NFL Day games, the top four members of the MLLC went 1-7 for a grand total of -26 units.  Proof that misery loves company, both Hitman and CDes/Bink lost on a Vapor. So what does all of this mean? Gladiator has significantly closed the gap on Captain and moved back into second.  Packy fell from fourth into sixth.  T-$ rode his season record seven consecutive win streak into the freshly vacated 4th spot before losing on Sunday.  Uncle PJ is still in the mix for the top money as well.  Everyone else is playing for closest to zero.

The Night Games present an interesting mix of unit outlays.  The Pittsburgh Steelers boast a hefty 26 units including 2 Vapors.  Things are split pretty evenly between the Colts and Patriots.  I am the only dumbass willing to roll with the Titans.  A double underdog cover would make things pretty interesting.  A double favorite cover would solidify the top three with Uncle PJ being the only legitimate potential party crasher.

Big plays abound on Saturday.  The Hitman made his first Vapor play of the year, laying 11 units on Arizona State.  Gladiator (TAMU), T-$ (UTEP), Uncle PJ (Rutgers), Well Tea (Notre Dame), and Gator (Michigan State) all put six units on their Sunday picks.  Both first and second place laid 3 units on the Dukies.  

Duke, Clemson, and South Carolina all play at noon.  TCU plays at 3.  Northwestern, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Mississippi State all play at 3:30.  Texas A&M kicks off at 7:30.  Florida State and Michigan State both play at 8.  Finally, UTEP plays at 10 and Arizona State plays at 10:45.  Happy viewing.

Lots of Jerkface to Go Around

Week Ten was an interesting one.  After seeing the Gladiator at the top of the charts for nearly two months, we saw not one, but two different leaders over the course of the weekend.  Meehoe took the lead with his third consecutive Vapor Lock Win on Saturday, but Captain answered back with a Vapor of his own on Sunday night.  Meanwhile, the Gladiator managed to tread water with a +2 week.  At this point, the people are whispering...Is the Gladiator finished?  He is still clutching that NFL Day Game Vapor close to his chest - it may be his final shot.

Not everyone hit their Vapors, though.  Monty Yahoo (he of the six consecutive victories and 11 of his last 12) went down in flames with Sparty and Gang Green from Michigan State.  Spencer, who had been on a bit of a roll himself, also whiffed on his NFL Day Vapor when the New Orleans Aints failed to seal the deal.

There were a few monster covers as well.  Arkansas State managed to top their "pick'em" line by 35 points which put T-$ back in control of the largest College Cover.  That didn't last long though as a few hours later CDes/Bink's pick of the Marshall Thundering Herd rode off to a 46 point cover.  Seven different people took Green Bay and their 33.5 point cover.  Unfortunately for them, NFL Night games are not counted - if they were, it would have been a whopping $3.57 pull for each.

In other league news, no one went 0-3.  T-$ and Uncle PJ both pulled off the 3-0 hat trick.  Should be an exciting week.  There are officially three weeks to go (including this one - Week 11).  There are still 15 Vapors yet to be played.  Remember, any Vapor not played by Week 13 will automatically be played in Week 13.

Also, the following people have yet to pay:  Uncle PJ, Hitman, Dirty D, Well Tea, Spencer, and Cento.  Please make your payment as soon as possible.

A Dark Horse

Week Nine was indeed a memorable one.  Captain's relentless assault on the Gladiator finally came to a successful conclusion.  After going 1-2 in Week Eight, his perfect 3-0 Week Nine performance (which included a successful NFL Day Game Vapor) allowed Station 1's leader to become the leader of the MLLC.  Gladiator, who witnessed his demise from the comforts of a sports book in Vegas, had his worst week since Week Five, going 1-2.  Both men have a Vapor still in play.

Speaking of Vapor's in play, Meehoe became the first member to both play two Vapors and hit two Vapors in the same week.  His +20 unit outting not only squarely placed him in third place (and the money) but left him with an 18 unit cushion over his nearest competition.  With an eye on the leaders, he is still in the mix to bring home our inaugural championship.

Perhaps the biggest story is one that has been building under the radar for the last few weeks.  Coming into Week Six, Montez was sitting at -28 units with a dismal 4-11 record.  After an unintentional name change, Yahoo caught absolute fire.  Week Six = 3-0.  Week Seven = 2-1.  Week Eight = 3-0.  Week Nine = 3-0.  He is currently riding a league record six game winning streak and has climbed all of the way up to eighth place with +7 units.  He is only 3 units out of fourth.  With two Vapors in his pocket, ANYTHING is still possible.  For those of you wondering, his highest possible total would be 57 units.  If he stays this hot, it may take 50 to beat him.

Congratulations go out to the several members that went a perfect 3-0 in Week Nine:  Captain, Hitman, T-$, Yahoo, CDes/Bink, and Spencer.  As a group, we are sitting at a record of 201-173-4 (53.7%) with a balance of +131 units.  The unit balance is impressive, but the goal is to finish above 55%.  On the year, we would have to end up at +202 to break even in Vegas.  Keep in mind that our current total has been lessened by 14 penalty points (145).  While I did not go through and consider Vapors played/unplayed, our goal (on average) would be 140 after Week Nine.

Captain has officially dethroned Gladiator at the top of the pile.  Kansas City's cover gave Captain the 11 units he needed to reach the top.  Gladiator's 0-4 run didn't hurt either.  The fact that they both have Pittsburgh means that this will not change by the end of this weekend.  Meehoe is hoping to stake his claim to third place with another 11 unit Vapor play on Indianapolis tomorrow night.

The crown is up for grabs this afternoon.  If Kansas City covers, the best the Gladiator could hope for is to also cover.  This would land him in a tie with Captain, with Captain currently holding the tie-breaker (best record).  Coming off three consecutive losses, there are grumblings about whether the Gladiator still has that magic or if the law of averages is finally catching up with him.  Only time will tell if he can right this ship.

Meehoe also has big things going this weekend as he Vapor Locked both NFL games.  After missing his 2 unit college pick, he could still finish the week with 28 units and a chance to reside in second place.  Keep an eye on his plays.

As far as the rest of the league goes, the middle of the pack is still a mess.  Almost everyone is still in the hunt to finish in the money.